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Of course, a player may lose both his original bet and his Insurance bet. Online Roulette Betting These are common misunderstandings that arise in everyday reasoning about probabilities, many of which have been studied in great detail. Many people lose money while gambling due to their erroneous belief in this fallacy. Although the gambler's fallacy can apply to any form of gambling, it is easiest to illustrate by considering coin-tossing; its rebuttal can be summarised with the phrase "the coin doesn't have a memory". It might be pointed out that where economic activity is concentrated in transfers of wealth rather than its creation, gambler's ruin results in most of the wealth being held by a very small number of participants. We see this in the stock market when speculative activity is the norm rather than long-term dividend producing investment The combination of above ensures that the casino will in the vast majority of cases come out ahead in the long run. For an illustration, see this Gambler's Ruin simulation: [1] Red dog [edit] The player who wishes to take Insurance can bet an amount up to half his original bet. The Insurance bet is placed separately on a special portion of the table, which usually carries the words "Insurance Pays 2:1". The player who is taking Insurance is betting that the dealer's 'hole card' is a 10-value card, i.e. a 10, a Jack, a Queen or a King. Because the dealer's upcard is an Ace, this means that the player who takes Insurance is essentially betting that the dealer was dealt a natural, i.e. a two-card 21, a blackjack, and this pays off 2:1 if it wins. The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, Richard A. Epstein, 1977, ISBN 012240761X, 215-251 The following rules are detrimental to the player: Notice that the gambler's fallacy is quite different from the following path of reasoning (which comes to the opposite conclusion): the coin comes up heads more often than tails, so it is not a fair coin, so I will bet that the next toss will be heads also. This is not fallacious, though the first step - the argument from a finite number of observations to a statement of likelihood - is a very delicate matter, and is itself prone to fallacies of its own peculiar kind. Random numbers
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